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March 6, 2009

Flu Pandemic Could Cause Blackouts

Kennedy Maize

An influenza pandemic could turn out the lights in large parts of the U.S. where coal-fired power plants predominate, according to a recent study by the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy (CIDRAP).

 “Despite regional differences in coal usage,” says the report, "Pandemic Influenza, Electricity, and the Coal Supply Chain,"  “a pandemic is likely to break the links in the coal supply chain, thus disrupting electrical generation. This has the potential to severely endanger the bulk electrical power system in most of the United States.” Today, says the study by CIDRAP researchers Nicholas Kelley and Michael Osterholm, federal preparedness plans for natural disasters do not look at how a flu pandemic could disrupt coal supplies and lead to power shortages if workers are unable to supply coal to generating plants.

Uninterrupted Coal Supply Essential to Health

When it comes to a flu pandemic, the researchers note, “An effective overall and public health response depends largely on the availability of electricity. Preventing disruptions in the coal supply chain is paramount, and such an effort will certainly require financial investment.” Yet today’s federal and state government pandemic response plans, the report explains, do not identify coal miners and the people who support the coal mining and delivery infrastructure as priorities for receiving antiviral drugs, vaccines, and other critical products and services.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) says of pandemic flu: “Pandemic flu is virulent human flu that causes a global outbreak, or pandemic, of serious illness. Because there is little natural immunity, the disease can spread easily from person to person. Currently, there is no pandemic flu.”

The most serious pandemic flu episode, notes the HHS, came in three waves in 1918 and 1919. The virulently infective virus, known as the “Spanish flu,” rapidly spread around the world, killing an estimated 50 million people over 18 months worldwide. The “Asian flu” in 1957–1958 killed an estimated 70,000 people in the U.S. The 1968–1969 “Hong Kong flu” killed some 30,000 in the U.S. Influenza experts have been keeping their fingers crossed, and promoting flu shots, ever since.

CIDRAP said that the increasing importance of Powder River Basin coal contributes to the flu pandemic vulnerability. Most of the coal is rail-hauled to markets in the East. The report notes that a pair of 2005 derailments show what a serious disruption in coal could mean. “By September 2005,” said the report, “many power plants were down to less than 10 days of coal in their stockpile, with some reporting only two days of coal on hand. Georgia Power’s giant Scherer plant in Julietta, Ga., was down to two days of burn on the stockpile and bought coal from Indonesia to rebuild the supply.”